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Threat Modeling

A five-question method for deciding what to protect, from whom, and how much inconvenience it is worth.

On this page
  1. The five questions
  2. Adversaries are not interchangeable
  3. Common failure modes
  4. Write it down

A threat model is a short, honest answer to five questions. Without one, you will copy someone else's precautions, usually someone with very different problems, and end up inconvenienced in ways that don't protect you.

The five questions

  1. What do I want to protect? Assets: message contents, location, identity, financial data, files, the fact that two identities are the same person.
  2. Who do I want to protect it from? Adversaries: advertisers and data brokers, criminals, an abusive ex-partner, an employer, a government.
  3. How likely is it that I will need to protect it? A ransomware operator targeting everyone is likely; a nation-state targeting you specifically is (for most people) not.
  4. How bad are the consequences if I fail? Annoyance, financial loss, unemployment, physical danger. Rank them.
  5. How much trouble am I willing to go through? Be honest. A measure you abandon in three weeks protects nothing.

This framework is adapted from the Electronic Frontier Foundation's Surveillance Self-Defense security planning guide, which is worth reading in full.

Adversaries are not interchangeable

The defenses that work against one adversary can be useless (or harmful) against another.

Adversary What works What doesn't
Ad networks, data brokers Content blocking, browser hygiene, data minimization A VPN alone; they identify you by login and fingerprint, not IP
Opportunistic criminals Password manager, MFA, updates, backups Exotic anonymity tools
Someone with access to your device Device encryption, strong screen lock, separate accounts Network-level tools; they're already past the network
Your ISP or network operator Encrypted DNS, HTTPS, VPN or Tor Blocking cookies
A motivated government Strict compartmentalization, Tor, minimal digital footprint, and honest assessment of whether technology helps at all A consumer VPN and wishful thinking

Common failure modes

Defending against the wrong adversary. The classic example: meticulous network anonymity while the real threat is a household member who knows your unlock PIN.

All-or-nothing thinking. "Google already knows everything, so why bother" ignores that future collection is preventable even when past collection is not.

Copying maximalists. Advice written for investigative journalists in hostile countries is not wrong, but applying it to a "keep my data away from brokers" threat model produces burnout, and burnout produces zero privacy.

Static models. Threat models change with jobs, relationships, countries, and laws. Reread yours when your life changes.

Write it down

Actually write the answers down, a few sentences is enough. The rest of this site constantly refers back to threat models, because almost every recommendation is conditional on one. When a guide here says "if your adversary is X," that is your cue to check the notes you made today.